Analyzing the results to see if they are scientifically significant requires a little math and perhaps the aid of a calculator, so perform this part carefully. Here's how to calculate the results of your test.
- Calculate your odds of being correct. Because there are five different symbols to choose from, the odds of guessing a card correctly strictly by chance is 1 in 5... or 1/5 = .2.
- Write down the total number of guesses made. We'll call this number g. (For our example, let's say g = 100 guesses.)
- Write down the number of right guesses that the subject made. We'll call this number r. (For our example, let's say r = 28 right guesses.)
- Calculate the average score by multiplying the number of guesses made by .2... or g x .2 (For example, 100 x .02 = 20) We'll call this number a.
- Calculate the result of: 1 minus your odds of being correct... or 1 - .2 = .8
- Now multiply this result by your odds of being correct... or .8 x .2 = .16 We'll call this number b.
- Now multiply this result by the total number of guesses made... or b x g (For example, .16 x 100 = 16) We'll call this result c.
- Use a calculator to figure the square root of c. (For example, the square root of 16 = 4). We'll call this number s.
- Now subtract the average score from the number of right guesses... or r - a. (For example, 28 - 20 = 8). We'll call this number d.
- Finally, divide this result by s... or d/s. (For example, 8/4 = 2) We'll call this number m.
-
m is your magic number - what the statisticians call the "critical
ratio."
- If m is less than or equal to 1.96, the results are considered not very significant.
- If m is above 2.58, the results are considered significant.
- If m is above 3, the results are considered very significant.

